Talk:Graham's Workshop Items/@comment-37952566-20190611151451/@comment-32197189-20190613103505

I worked out the odds of gold to be 11%, yeah that makes sense.

AJHQ claim the chance of a gold-yielding attempt to be 20%, but the problem is that other attempts have more than 1 silver.

The 5 possible permutations are:

1g 2s (1 gold, 2 silver)

1g

1s

2s

3s

That means that in one of each of these attempts, you'd suppose you could expect 2 gold and 8 silver, right? but that's not factoring in the 20%

We have to find the LCM of 5 (the 1 in 5 [20%]), 2 (gold-yielding attempts) and 3 (non-gold-yielding attempts)

That's 30

This means we have to take 30 trials into account

In these, we'd have:

3x 1g2s = 3g + 6s

3x 1g = 3g

8x 1s = 8s

8x 2s = 16s

8x 3s = 24s

That means that in 30 attempts, we'd have 6 gold, and 54 silver

That's a 1:9 ratio, or 11.1111%